History demonstrates that a competitive series, big-market teams, and marketable superstar players are the three main components that contribute to a highly regarded NBA Finals. Unfortunately, even with league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the mix, the Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals in 2025 don’t seem to contain any of those components.
According to Nielsen, two of the NBA’s smallest U.S. television markets are Indiana and Oklahoma City. While Oklahoma City is ranked 47th in the United States and third to last in the NBA, only surpassed by New Orleans and Memphis, Indianapolis is the 25th-largest market in the nation and the 23rd of 29 NBA clubs (not including Toronto).
Ratings for series between two relatively small markets are typically lower. With the exception of those impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak, the Spurs vs. New Jersey Nets series in 2003 had the lowest ratings since 2000 (9.86 million), and the Spurs vs. Cavaliers series in 2007 had the lowest rating (9.29 million).
Cleveland is ranked No. 19 in the nation, while San Antonio is ranked No. 31. Although they receive a bite from the major marketplaces in New York (ranked No. 1) and Philadelphia (ranked No. 5), New Jersey is not on the list. The franchise did, however, relocate to Brooklyn in 2012 for a cause.
Both the Thunder and the Pacers have advanced to the Finals this century and attracted sizable crowds, but it was advantageous that their opponents were from big or medium cities with the biggest personalities in the league. In 2000 (17.4 million), Indiana played the Lakers (No. 2 market) with Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal, and in 2012 (16.9 million), the Thunder played the Heat (No. 18 market) with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. At the time, Oklahoma City also had James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Durant.
Given that the Thunder’s five-game Western Conference finals series against the Timberwolves drew an average viewing of 5.59 million, a 17% decrease from the previous year, Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have the same draw on viewers as those players. The majority of the games were also blowouts, with three games being decided by more than 25 points and four of the five being decided by at least 15 points.
It is not expected that the Pacers will perform better. According to Sports Odds History data, Oklahoma City had -375 odds to win the Minnesota series, and the Thunder were -750 favorites going into the Finals, which tied for the sixth-most lopsided Finals. Additionally, the series isn’t anticipated to be that long. The Oklahoma City victory in five games (+225) and the Thunder sweep (+290) are the best odds for an identical series score prediction.
But for the most of their postseason run, Indiana has defied the odds, winning back-to-back series without home court advantage or a favorite. The club could win a series, as was the case in 2000 when the Pacers extended the series to six games despite the Lakers being -800 favorites.
This series might become much more interesting if Indiana can steal one game in Oklahoma City. However, the NBA should anticipate a decline in viewership for the 2025 NBA Finals based on past data.